US Natural Gas Production Set To Reach Record Highs Through 2027, EIA Forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that domestic natural gas production will continue climbing to record levels through 2027, even as overall demand is expected to soften in the near term.

According to the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, dry natural gas production is forecast to increase from a record 107.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025 to 110.6 bcfd in 2026, before rising further to 115.0 bcfd in 2027. At the same time, domestic gas consumption is expected to dip slightly from 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 91.2 bcfd in 2026, before rebounding to 94.4 bcfd in 2027.

The EIA attributed the production growth largely to expanding output in the Permian and Haynesville shale regions, where rising oil activity and higher gas-to-oil ratios are driving associated gas production. Stronger crude oil prices are also expected to support continued drilling activity.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are forecast to play a major role in sustaining growth, with average U.S. LNG exports projected to rise from a record 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.0 bcfd in 2026 and 18.2 bcfd in 2027.

Meanwhile, the EIA expects coal production to continue declining as utilities increasingly shift toward gas and other energy sources. U.S. coal output is projected to fall to its lowest level since 1963 by 2027.

The agency also forecasts a modest decline in carbon dioxide emissions in 2026 as fossil fuel consumption eases, although emissions are expected to edge upward again in 2027 alongside rising natural gas use.

Record US gas production plus rising LNG exports through 2027 mean methane-management performance is about to become the deciding factor in whether that gas remains competitive in EU and Asian markets tightening under EU Methane Regulation and ISSB S2. Our energy-transition and sustainability-due-diligence teams help gas producers and LNG marketers evaluate methane-intensity credibility and disclosure exposure.