Ukraine to Seek Unprecedented $44 Billion Claim from Russia for War-Driven Emissions Surge

Ukraine is preparing to file a landmark $44 billion claim against Russia for the climate damage caused by wartime emissions - the first attempt by any nation to seek compensation for greenhouse gases released during armed conflict.

Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the COP30 summit in Brazil, Deputy Minister Pavlo Kartashov said the war has triggered massive environmental destruction, from polluted land and water to extensive forest loss. But one of the largest impacts, he noted, is the spike in emissions from fossil fuel use, cement, steel, and widespread fires linked to the fighting.

Dutch carbon accounting expert Lennard de Klerk estimates the war has produced roughly 237 million tons of CO₂-equivalent emissions since Russia’s invasion in February 2022 - nearly equal to the combined annual emissions of Ireland, Belgium, and Austria. Ukraine’s $44 billion figure is based on the 2022 Nature study placing the social cost of carbon at about $185 per ton.

The claim will be submitted through a new Council of Europe compensation mechanism, which has already logged around 70,000 individual claims for wartime damage. A dedicated commission will review all submissions, though it remains unclear how compensation will ultimately be financed. De Klerk suggested frozen Russian assets may offer one potential source.

Ukraine's proposed $44 billion climate-damage claim would be the first attempt globally to seek compensation for wartime greenhouse-gas emissions from an aggressor state. The methodology - 237 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions valued at the 2022 Nature study social cost of $185/tonne - establishes a precedent that could apply to future armed-conflict compensation claims.

The Council of Europe compensation mechanism provides institutional pathway that avoids requiring direct Russian participation. Whether frozen Russian assets ultimately fund the compensation remains contested legally and politically, but the framing establishes climate damage as a compensable category of wartime harm - a significant normative development.

For companies with operational exposure to conflict zones, insurance providers, financial institutions supporting reconstruction and their legal and policy advisors, Cognitud's climate action, sustainability due diligence and impact assessment teams help clients evaluate exposure to emerging climate-liability frameworks, structure risk-management strategies aligned with evolving legal precedent, and prepare disclosures aligned with TCFD, ISSB S2 and jurisdictional climate-risk frameworks that increasingly require quantified climate-liability and physical-risk analysis.