Mexico’s Power Sector Leans Into Solar as Capacity Set to Triple by 2035

Mexico is accelerating a major shift toward solar energy, with installed photovoltaic capacity projected to more than triple to 37.8 gigawatts by 2035, according to new analysis from GlobalData and energy think tank Ember. Solar capacity is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of about 10.7% between 2024 and 2035, supported by Mexico’s strong solar resource base, expanding utility-scale projects and rapid growth in distributed generation.

GlobalData’s latest Mexico Power Market Trends and Analysis report highlights that long-term national planning frameworks are prioritizing new capacity to meet rising electricity demand from manufacturing, industry and expanding urban centers. Solar and wind are expected to dominate new clean energy additions, reshaping the country’s generation mix over the next decade.

Ember’s analysis suggests Mexico’s climate could allow solar power to supply close to 90% of national electricity demand. While solar accounted for just 6.6% of generation in 2023, it is expected to play a central role in achieving a 45% clean electricity share by 2030-roughly one-fifth of total power generation. Reaching that target would require accelerating deployment to around 36GW of solar capacity alongside 30GWh of battery storage by 2030.

However, analysts warn that costs remain a challenge. Solar development in Mexico is up to 40% more expensive than in Chile or Brazil. Closing this gap will require competitive procurement, streamlined permitting, expanded transmission infrastructure, improved financing and stronger domestic supply chains.

Wind power is also set to expand, with onshore capacity projected to rise from 7.8GW in 2024 to 16.5GW by 2035, particularly in high-resource regions such as Oaxaca and Tamaulipas.

Despite the clean energy push, natural gas will remain critical to system reliability. Installed gas capacity is expected to grow to 64GW by 2035, supporting a dual-track strategy that balances rapid solar growth with dependable backup power and energy security.

Tripling Mexican solar capacity by 2035 changes what Scope 2 procurement, PPA structuring and disclosure narratives can offer for corporates operating there - and the parallel gas build sets the reliability envelope that PPAs get priced against. Our energy-transition and market-intelligence teams help clients evaluate what Mexican renewable expansion means for pipeline sequencing and disclosure.