Mexico’s Climate Budget Under Fire: Billions Labeled ‘Green Spending’ Redirected to Fossil Fuels and Infrastructure

Mexico’s 2026 fiscal budget, approved in November, promises bold commitments to renewable energy, climate adaptation and environmental protection. But a closer look reveals that much of the so-called climate spending is being funneled into oil, gas, defense and infrastructure projects - inflating Mexico’s environmental commitments on paper while delivering far less in reality.

Budget documents show that funds categorized under climate change and energy transition frequently have little to do with decarbonization. Instead, they include allocations for national defense, railway expansion, hydrocarbon coordination and diesel-powered transportation systems. Analysts say these misclassifications significantly exaggerate Mexico’s actual climate investment.

“Climate action hasn’t been prioritized,” said Anaid Velasco Ramírez of the Mexican Center for Environmental Law, warning that major portions of the national budget still support high-emission activities, especially in the energy sector.

President Claudia Sheinbaum, who built her political image on climate science and renewable energy advocacy, now faces criticism for pursuing new oil exploration even as she promotes a clean energy transition.

Although the government earmarked 17.9 billion pesos ($983 million) for its Energy Transition National Strategy and 212.6 billion pesos ($11.7 billion) for climate adaptation and mitigation, those amounts pale in comparison to the 517.4 billion pesos ($28.4 billion) dedicated to state oil giant Pemex.

Researchers say that of the 212.6 billion pesos designated as climate spending, only about 50 billion pesos - roughly 24% - is plausibly linked to genuine mitigation or adaptation efforts. For the Energy Transition National Strategy, only about 5.5 billion pesos of the 17.9 billion pesos appears truly renewable-energy related.

Some items are double-counted, such as 744 million pesos ($40.9 million) for the controversial Tren Maya railway, inflating climate spending totals without increasing actual investment. Critics argue this indicates a lack of transparency in budget design.

Meanwhile, funding for Mexico’s environmental protection agencies is set to decline by 6%, with the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources facing a 4% budget cut. Renewable energy generation has also slipped - from supplying 15% of national electricity before 2018 to just 11% today.

Experts warn that Mexico’s current trajectory undermines its ability to meet its clean energy goals. To reach the target of 45% clean energy by 2030, investments must approximately double - starting immediately.

“It’s basically empty words,” Velasco said. “The planet will keep warming, and communities will continue to face escalating risks while fossil fuel projects take priority.”

Green-budget classification scrutiny raises the credibility bar for sovereign and corporate use-of-proceeds disclosure, and it will directly shape how green-bond markets evaluate issuer claims from Mexico and comparable jurisdictions. Our responsible-investment and ESG-strategy teams help clients build ICMA-aligned use-of-proceeds narratives that withstand scrutiny.