India's Clean Energy Firms Seek Better Weather Data as Rules Tighten

India’s clean energy companies have raised concerns about the lack of advanced weather forecasting systems as regulatory rules on power supply accuracy are set to tighten.

The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) released a draft in September proposing stricter guidelines under the Deviation Settlement Mechanism (DSM), which penalizes renewable power producers if the electricity they deliver deviates significantly from projected supply.

These new rules are expected to gradually narrow the margin of error for forecasts starting April 2026.

During a recent public hearing, developers highlighted that the absence of precise, hyperlocal forecasting models makes it difficult for them to match real-time power generation with commitments to the grid. Companies stressed that renewable sources like solar and wind are heavily weather-dependent and unpredictable fluctuations can lead to forced penalties under the DSM reforms.

Adani Green Energy, India’s largest clean energy producer, noted that even with advanced deep learning models and collaborations with weather technology experts in Switzerland and France, challenges persist when forecasting conditions at specific project sites. Developers argued that India’s tropical monsoon climate, characterized by sudden weather shifts, differs from more predictable climatic patterns in Europe and the U.S., making accurate forecasting inherently more complex.

Industry representatives also pointed out the limitations in government weather infrastructure. The India Meteorological Department updates base weather data only every six hours, which companies say is insufficient for real-time renewable energy forecasting.

Additionally, current radar deployments prioritize disaster management needs rather than serving renewable-rich regions. With penalties looming under stricter DSM rules, the renewable energy ministry has reportedly requested a delay, warning that premature implementation could deter fresh investment in the sector.

Weather-data quality is quietly the operational bottleneck for renewable-grid compliance in India, and tighter DSM rules turn it into a real financial issue for developers and IPPs almost overnight. Our energy-transition and data-and-digital teams help clients evaluate what data-infrastructure investments mean for compliance and pipeline economics.