US Solar Growth Outlook Cut by 27% as Trump Policies Roll Back Subsidies

The U.S. solar industry is projected to install 27% less capacity between 2026 and 2030 than previously expected, due to President Donald Trump’s rollback of clean energy subsidies, according to a report by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. The trade group warned the policy shift is discouraging investment, raising energy costs, and threatening grid reliability. Despite setbacks, solar remains a major force in U.S. energy growth: solar and storage made up 82% of new electricity capacity in the first half of 2025. Domestic solar module manufacturing also surged, reaching 55 GW of capacity. However, rising tariffs, permitting hurdles, and higher overhead pushed utility-scale solar costs up 4%, while residential and commercial system costs rose 2% and 10%, respectively. Notably, over three-quarters of solar capacity installed this year has been in Trump-leaning states like Texas, Indiana, and Florida.