US Solar Growth Outlook Cut by 27% as Trump Policies Roll Back Subsidies

The U.S. solar industry is projected to install 27% less capacity between 2026 and 2030 than previously expected, due to President Donald Trump’s rollback of clean energy subsidies, according to a report by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. The trade group warned the policy shift is discouraging investment, raising energy costs, and threatening grid reliability.

Despite setbacks, solar remains a major force in U.S. energy growth: solar and storage made up 82% of new electricity capacity in the first half of 2025. Domestic solar module manufacturing also surged, reaching 55 GW of capacity.

However, rising tariffs, permitting hurdles, and higher overhead pushed utility-scale solar costs up 4%, while residential and commercial system costs rose 2% and 10%, respectively. Notably, over three-quarters of solar capacity installed this year has been in Trump-leaning states like Texas, Indiana, and Florida.

The 27 percent downward revision in 2026–2030 solar capacity is a meaningful downgrade, but the underlying market fundamentals remain robust. Solar and storage still accounted for 82 percent of new US electricity capacity in the first half of 2025, and 55 GW of domestic module manufacturing capacity indicates continued industrial investment despite policy headwinds. The market is adjusting rather than reversing.

The state-level pattern - with over three-quarters of installed solar capacity concentrated in Republican-leaning states - reflects economic rather than political drivers. Solar and storage are increasingly cost-competitive with alternatives, and grid reliability considerations continue to support deployment even where federal-level rhetoric has turned negative. Investors comfortable with policy-risk analysis are finding the current environment offers selective opportunity.

For utilities, developers and investors managing exposure to US clean-energy markets, Cognitud's market intelligence and responsible investment teams support scenario planning across federal and state policy trajectories, portfolio construction that reflects the actual state-level economics of solar-plus-storage, and ESG disclosures that translate a complex regulatory landscape into risk narratives that lenders and rating agencies can price.